HUMAN-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASED 2021–2022 DROUGHT SEVERITY IN HORN OF AFRICA

From October 2020 to early 2023, Eastern Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons (SPEI -2.6), resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. This severe drought led to widespread harvest failures, livestock losses, water scarcity, and conflicts, leaving approximately 4.35 million people in need of humanitarian aid. To investigate the role of human-induced climate change in this drought, researchers analyzed rainfall trends and the combined impacts of rainfall deficits with high temperatures in the Southern Horn of Africa, covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya. Various climate models and observations were employed to assess changes in 24-month rainfall (2021–2022) and seasonal rainfall, including the March-April-May (MAM) ‘long rains’ and October-November-December (OND) ‘short rains’ in 2022.  

Furthermore, the study contextualized the event regarding vulnerability and exposure to understand how these factors influenced the magnitude of the impacts. The analysis revealed that anthropogenic influences on the combined effects of low rainfall and high evapotranspiration, driven by elevated temperatures, rendered the drought exceptional, resulting in significant crop and pasture losses as well as water shortages. Findings indicated a decline in rainfall during MAM and an upward trend during OND, which could be attributed to climate change. Despite the increased rainfall trend in the OND season, the drought years coincided with successive La Niña conditions, which are typically associated with below-average rainfall in the region during that season. No trend was identified in the 24-month precipitation.

The assessment of vulnerability and exposure highlighted the pressing need for improved government drought management systems and international aid infrastructure in preparation for future severe and prolonged droughts. The study's findings, alongside climate projections indicating an increase in heavy precipitation in the region, emphasize the urgent necessity for robust adaptation strategies to address both wet and dry extremes. The impacts of climate change in Eastern Africa call for investments in adaptive measures and resilience building that can adjust to emerging climate signals.